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Is it a volcano, commerce, or clouds? Potential explanations for the unprecedented temperatures are proposed by scientists.
Climate researchers have a shared theory regarding the apparent surge in temperatures in recent years, but none have yet achieved a comprehensive understanding of the situation. The causes of a series of unforeseen, record-breaking heat waves that plagued 2023 and early this year still perplex scientists. This has sparked concerns that the climate crisis may be progressing at a faster pace than previously anticipated.
The American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting in Washington featured a succession of climate researchers who proposed potential explanations for the increase in global warming. However, none were able to assert a comprehensive understanding of the climate since the beginning of the previous year.
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Robert Rohde, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, acknowledged that the temperatures of the previous year were “gobsmackingly bananas,” as they were 0.2C higher than the previous annual global record. “We weren’t expecting 2023 to be so exceptional,” he said.
Human activities, such as the combustion of fossil fuels, are contributing to a warming trend worldwide. Additionally, the previous year was impacted by an El Niño event, a climate phenomenon that elevates global temperatures. Rohde stated, “However, this was not typical.” “El Niño and global warming are the most significant factors; however, there was an additional factor at play.”
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One potential explanation could be the reduction in cloud cover last year. This decrease in reflective surface area would have impeded the sun’s energy from reflecting back into the atmosphere, resulting in additional warmth being absorbed by the Earth. Another potential explanation could be the implementation of measures to reduce air pollution emitted by ships in 2020, which decreased the quantity of sulfate aerosols that help block incoming solar radiation.
The eruption of the Hunga Tonga volcano in 2022 could be another contributing factor, releasing 150 million tons of water vapor into the atmosphere, contributing to the accumulation of additional heat near the Earth’s surface. A reduction in dust from the Sahara desert, which typically helps block solar radiation, was also discussed by researchers as a contributing factor.
Researchers are still unsure whether the unexpected warming will subside, as the elevated temperature has persisted for the majority of 2024. This year is expected to be the warmest on record, surpassing 1.5°C above the pre-industrial era for the first time. This poses a warning that the international endeavor to limit the temperature rise to this level is likely doomed in the long term.
This level of global warming is already contributing to hazardous heatwaves, floods, and other calamities. Scientists are urging for additional research to determine whether the climate system is heating up at a rate that exceeds previous predictions.
“There is still work to be done,” stated Gavin Schmidt, a Nasa climate scientist who co-chaired the session. He then requested that attendants raise their hands if they believed the heat anomalies had been completely elucidated. Only a small number of the several hundred individuals who were present did so.
In conclusion, the unprecedented temperatures and heat waves of recent years have left scientists searching for answers. The combination of human activities, natural phenomena like El Niño, and various other factors are contributing to the warming of the planet. While potential explanations involving clouds, shipping, volcanoes, and desert dust have been proposed, there is still much to be understood about the complex mechanisms driving global warming. Continued research and international collaboration are essential to address the escalating climate crisis and its impacts on the planet.
